Elon Musk, founding father of SpaceX and chief government officer of Tesla Inc., arrives on the Axel Springer Award ceremony in Berlin, Germany, on Tuesday, Dec. 1, 2020.

Johannessen-Koppitz | Bloomberg | Getty Pictures

Do not depend Elon Musk among the many traders who assume Tesla is overvalued, even with the refill nearly 700% prior to now yr and the corporate valued at 213 occasions projected 2021 earnings, in line with FactSet.

Within the automobile maker’s fourth-quarter earnings name on Wednesday, Tesla’s CEO stated there’s a “roadmap to probably justify” its market cap, which has topped $800 billion, making it the fifth-most beneficial U.S. firm. Musk is now the world’s wealthiest person, with a web price over $200 billion.

Musk’s valuation math goes like this: Assume the corporate quickly reaches $50 billion to $60 billion in annual automobile gross sales (the corporate generated $9.31 billion in automotive income in Q4 and stated that automobile deliveries would enhance a mean of fifty% a yr going ahead). As Tesla’s self-driving expertise continues to enhance, these autos will develop into self-driving robotaxis, permitting utilization to go from 12 hours per week to 60 hours per week. Tesla might cost extra charges for these robotaxis, permitting the corporate to generate far more income per automobile. Mainly, it will be like bringing software program economics to the manufacturing-intensive automobile enterprise.

Musk additionally introduced that Tesla’s Full Self Driving package deal will likely be obtainable on a subscription foundation beginning in Q1, relatively than as a one-time $10,000 add-on, which is able to permit Tesla to start including recurring income as it really works on bettering its self-driving expertise.

Even when utilization solely doubles, a $1 trillion valuation could make sense, in line with Musk.

“For those who made $50 billion price of automobiles, it will be like having $50 billion of incremental revenue, principally as a result of it is simply software program,” Musk stated within the introductory a part of the decision. Primarily based on that method, Musk says a a number of of 20 occasions earnings would result in $1 trillion in market cap — “and the corporate’s nonetheless in high-growth mode.”

Lower than 9 months in the past, Musk had a very different perspective on the corporate’s valuation. In a tweet on Might 1, he stated “Tesla inventory worth is simply too excessive,” a remark that despatched the shares down 10%. Since then, the corporate’s market cap has jumped by greater than 450%.

It is doable that traders are already presuming Tesla’s automobiles will finally flip into revenue-generating robotaxis. However the firm is not near having these capabilities but, and Musk has a historical past of over-promising in terms of technological innovation.

For example, when Tesla started to debate self-driving expertise in 2016, Musk stated the corporate would full a hands-free journey throughout the U.S. by late 2017. The corporate has but to finish that mission.

At the moment, Tesla’s Full Self Driving options embody Good Summon, which lets a driver name their Tesla to roll out from a parking spot to the place they’re standing, and Navigate on Autopilot, which might pilot the automobile from a freeway on-ramp to an off-ramp, making vital lane adjustments alongside the way in which.

However regardless of its title, the Full Self Driving package deal nonetheless requires drivers to maintain their arms on the steering wheel and stay attentive always. A Munich courtroom ruled last year that Tesla misled customers on the skills of its automated driving techniques, and banned the corporate from together with “full potential for autonomous driving” and “Autopilot inclusive” in its promoting supplies.

Whereas Tesla has missed a lot of its personal projections for self-driving expertise, Musk continues to insist that it is coming. “I actually don’t see any obstacles right here,” he informed an analyst on the decision who requested concerning the firm’s progress.

Tesla shares fell 5.5% in prolonged buying and selling on Wednesday after the corporate reported earnings that missed analysts’ estimates, at the same time as income was higher than anticipated.

WATCH: Tesla misses on earnings

Nominations are open for the 2021 CNBC Disruptor 50, an inventory of personal start-ups utilizing breakthrough expertise to develop into the subsequent technology of nice public firms. Submit by Friday, Feb. 12, at 3 pm EST.