Right here is one account, please word this investigation is in its early days:

“A rise in R of 0.4 or higher is extraordinarily unhealthy information. In the course of the nationwide lockdown in November one of the best we might obtain was an R worth of someplace between 0.8 and 1.0 across the UK,” mentioned Prof Hunter. “What this implies is that even when we went again to the lockdown it might nonetheless not be sufficient to carry the R worth right down to lower than 1.0.”

Be aware additionally it’s very likely the brand new mutation already has unfold nicely past the UK.  And with compounding, an R enhance of 0.4 is actually unhealthy as time passes.

If this all is true, what are the coverage implications?  First, a lockdown with no pending vaccine will solely postpone issues, a’ la the herd immunity theorists.

Second, we do have vaccines and so in any believable mannequin sooner viral unfold implies a sooner timetable for vaccine approval and distribution.  And it implies we should always have been sooner to start with.

Should you used to say “we had been simply sluggish sufficient,” you now should revise that opinion and imagine that higher pace is named for, each prospectively and searching backwards.

In any believable mannequin.

If Godzilla is quicker than you had thought, it’s worthwhile to begin working away sooner.  And also you wanted to have began working away sooner.  In any believable mannequin.

In any believable mannequin.

But someway I don’t anticipate the rooftops to be so crowded over the following few days.